When a good read is a bad read

Ted Castellucci: Objection, Your Honor! The court is interested in the truth, not the opinion of the defendant's father.
Lenny: You want my opinion? My son is a moron.
Ted Castellucci: I withdraw my objection. Please proceed!

"Big Daddy"

Yes, I have actually played some poker since my last post. Real poker. Texas Holdem poker. I lost my buy-in on a $5 SNG (all in with suited big slick, lost to Qd7h with five diamonds on the board), then pulled out a win on a $15 one. Funny game, we're heads up and on a pretty ragged flop and turn, my opponent bets. I know he doesn't have crap, maybe overs at best but I only have top pair no kicker. I think I'll try a move here - raise. Due to my stack size though, there is only one decent raise I can make so I push. He thinks abuot it then calls. I show my K9 and he shows K8 - we both have a pair of kings and sixes with ten kicker. A split pot, but it means I now know he is full of crap. Eventually I check my set post flop and he bets out. I catch a boat on the turn and it is all over for him.

I decided to keep my poker goign and drop into a $20 tournament. I double up early when again my set becomes a boat. I hand around here for a while then look to make a move when holding QJ in the big blind I limp with 3 runners. The flop comes TJQ rainbow. Two pair is nice, not the nuts but nice none the less. One player bets and all the others fold. I look deep into his digital soul, and I am 99.9% certain he doesn't have big slick. I KNOW he doesn't have it. This was a brilliant read. On this table, I know he would have raised pre-flop with it if he did. I limped from the BB, so he has no idea what I might have. He doesn't have big slick, so maybe I can represent it and beat him holding an ace or king looking to draw to the nut straight. I went all in as the pot was already $700 plus his $300 bet and my $1400 stack. He called, and then confirmed my read. He didn't have big slick. He did only have the king and was looking to draw to the nut straight. Problem was, he ALREADY had the nut-1 straight. He was holding K9. I never improved and ended my tournament there. A little bit of a clumsy move, but you've got to live to learn.

Which brings me to the casino challenge.

A quick "Rounders" reference first. Matt Damon says "Your goal is to win one big bet an hour..." This refer's I think to live play poker. It however does not refer to online blakjack. Remember this for later. I had one of the most unbelievale runs at Casino on Net over the weekend.

I deposited $200 for the 100% bonus. Looking good, had a bit of trouble getting the entire 100% but it got there eventually. Since the WR is so high, I decided that I was allowed to break the rules here and bet above the minimum. My standard bet became $3, but $5 was not uncommon. Pretty soon I was down to just over $300, and the little voice started up again. I decided this was the hand where I would put out the big bet again. I pressed the black $100 chip and went forth.

I'am dealt a 3. Oh shit. Oh shit.

She's dealt a 5. Ok, that could have been worse.

I get an 8. Uh huh, this is both good and bad news. The good news is 11 against the dealer showing five is normally a very good position. The bad news is, as they say in "Swingers" you should always double on 11. I have to double to $200 on this one. But I did it damn it, I doubled to $200 and set my hopes on the next card.

My connection seems a little slow. This couldn't happen could it? Nope, here it comes...

Ten of diamonds. Or it could have been clubs, hearts or spades for all I remember. All I know is that I was dealt a ten. I had bet $200 and hit 21 against the dealer showing a five.

She flipped over her other card to show a 4. A 9 count, and here come the cards...

A deuce, shit, now it's 11 and a good chance for a push.

Another deuce, and into the not-so-lucky 13 spot. Looking good.

A seven, for a grand total of twenty, just one short of me again.

I drew in a deep breath, and then pu tout $3 for the next hand. Ove rthe weekend, I was able to build this up to $550 a few times and then it would drop back to $500 but rarely below. I would be more than happy to cash out at $500, that would be an awesome return but I just had to clear the WR which was $2K.

A quick tip here - some might disagree with this but it worked for me. I don't mind getting a "push" here and there. Sure, I'm not gaining any but I'm also not loosing and the WR is getting closer still. I got bored of blackjack and decided to try Pai-Gow poker. Out of the first 20 hands, I won 1 and lost 2, betting $10 per hand. That means I advanced the WR by $200 and lost only $10.50. That's not too bad methinks. I mean, I wouldn't like to do it for the entire bonus amount, but if you are looking to just get that WR up there wuickly without loosing too much, it seemed ok this time. The majority of the time I would win the low hand and loose the high or vice-versa. Just a thought for you all out there.

The WR was coming too slowly, and all I could think about was how much this would mean to my bank roll. Now, remember that "Rounders" quote from above? I didn't even know it was possible in blackjack, but I went on tilt. I lost hand after hand after hand. I would be dealt 18 and the dealer would get a four card 21. down and down it went, and then I doubled my bets. The streak continued and before long I was down to $200. Fuck that, this was just an unbelievable streak. I estimate 60 hands, he had BJ at least 10 times and I won only 2-3 hands. With the last $200, I put it ALL IN on the one hand. Surely, this was my time to learn my lesson and be spanked by the gambooling gods that had treated me so well.

I was dealt 16 as he showed a queen. Damn, was this sending a message or what? As my BJ strategy card says, this is a "hit" situation. So I did, and got a king to bust me out. He flipped over a 9 to show me it was a lost cause anyway.

So I busted out for the first time, and on the biggest deposit out of them all too. The good news is though my last casino went so well that I m stil very much in the black at the moment. I will continue on.

Read a great post over at Uwannabet about a little chat log he was a part of. Very interesting game, and I say it shows that the gambling gods believe in karma.